DO YOU GET NERVOUS WHEN TRADING - forex manual trading system

DO YOU GET NERVOUS WHEN TRADING ~ forex manual trading system

If so, my advice is to ensure you have a Trading Plan Trade Sheet.

I used to be nervous too especially trading smaller time frames. These move very quickly and the minute you enter a trade, there is a possibility to lose very quickly - not a nice feeling. You get a lot of unnecessary tension and nerves. This is one of the many reasons I and others switched to the larger time frames and Swing Trading.

Nevertheless, whatever time frame you use, get a Trade Sheet that has rules and checklists to justify each trade. I found that whenever I traded without this, I would be unsure if I had taken everything into account before clicking that button. This uncertainty creates anxiety and fear.

If you have a Trade Sheet that you know will provide you with a good trade 80-90% of the time, you will be more confident. It gives you a visual confirmation that you are making the right decision and that everything has been accounted for.

These are examples of the Trade Sheets checklist & Guidelines used for each of the 5 Swing Trading Strategies that we use..

These guide us through all steps involved in the trade - from analysis to the closing of the trading platform as well as while the trade is in motion. 

If you use something like this during your Demo Account phase and the results are good, then just use it on the Live Account and the nerves will fade away. They will be replaced by celebration winning trades.

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When cointegration of a pair breaks down - forex trading successful strategies

When cointegration of a pair breaks down ~ forex trading successful strategies

I have written a lot in the past about the cointegration of ETF pairs, and how this condition can lead to profitable pairs trading. However, as every investment advisor could have told you, past cointegration is no guarantee of future cointegration. Often, cointegration for a pair breaks down for an extended period, maybe as long as a half a year or more. Naturally, trading this pair during this period is a losing proposition, but abandoning such a pair completely is also unsatisfactory, since cointegration often mysteriously returns after a while.

A case in point is the ETF pair GLD-GDX. When I first tested it in 2006, it was an excellent candidate for pair trading, and I not only traded it in my personal portfolio, but we traded it in our fund too. Unfortunately, it went haywire in 2008. We promptly abandoned it, only to see the strategy recovered sharply in 2007.

So the big question is: how do we know whether the loss of cointegration is temporary, and how do we know when to resume trading a pair?

To answer the first question, it is often necessary to go beyond the technicals, and delve into the fundamentals of pair. Take GLD-GDX as the example. When I taught my pairs trading workshop in South Africa, several  portfolio managers in attendance told me that there are 2 reasons why gold spot price diverged from gold miners stock prices. Firstly, due to the sharp increase in oil prices during the first half of 2008, it costs the gold miners a lot more in energy to extract the gold from the ground, hence the gold miners income lags behind the rise in gold prices. Secondly, many gold miners hedge their exposure to fluctuating gold prices with derivatives. Hence when gold price rise beyond a certain limit, the gold miners cease to benefit from this rise. Recently, the Economist magazine published an article that essentially confirms this view. But further confirmation can be gained by introducing oil (future) price into the cointegration equation. If you do that, and if you trade this triplet of GLD-GDX-USO, you will find that it is profitable throughout the entire period from 2006-2010. If you find trading a triplet too complicated, you can at least backtest a trading filter such that you will cease to trade GLD-GDX whenever USO goes beyond (above, and maybe below too) a certain band. If you have done all these backtests, you will have a plan in place to tell you when to resume trading this pair. But even if you havent done this backtest, and you find that you need to stop trading a pair because of cumulating losses, you should at least continue paper trading it to see when it is turning around!

(By the way, if you think trading ETF pairs offers too low returns due to the low leverage allowed, consider the single stock futures on ETFs trading on the OneChicago exchange. Certainly the future on GDX is available there, while you might just trade the futures GC and CL directly on CME. There is, of course, the usual caveat that applies to futures pairs trading: the switch from contango to backwardation and vice versa can ruin many a pairs-trading strategy, even if the spot prices remain cointegrating. But thats a story for another time.)
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GENERAL GUIDE TO FOREX TRADING - mathematical forex trading system

GENERAL GUIDE TO FOREX TRADING ~ mathematical forex trading system

This is my general guide to getting started in the Forex Market so that you are able to stay focused from the beginning. Often times traders jump into this market without any clear goals defined which leads to only moderate levels of success that can take an unnecessary amount of time and experimentation. Once you know your goals and how to get to them, you will reach your goals in a much shorter time with fewer setbacks along the way.

1- DETERMINE HOW MUCH MONEY YOU WANT FROM FOREX TRADING


Many times people jump into Forex Trading without knowing what they want from it. This then leads to experimentation for a longer time than is necessary and with the 1000s of strategies out there, you can easily get lost and frustrated.



2 - FIND OUT WHICH METHODOLOGY/STYLE OF TRADING CAN GET YOU THAN MONETARY TARGET


If there is a strategy out there that can get you what you are looking for, there is no need to reinvent the wheel. If there isnt one, then develop a strategy for yourself. Either way, practice the strategy on a Demo and ensure that it hits your targets for 3- 6 Months before going Live.



3. DO NOT RELY ON FREE OR LOW COST TRADING TRADING INFORMATION AND STRATEGIES

The reason that most of them are Free and cost very little is that they are not providing you with anything new or worthwhile to improve your trading. Most of it is recycled information or information which just focuses on one aspect of trading. Although most of them are useful by themselves, they cannot be expected to provide you with a complete/profitable Trading Plan.

4. CONTRARY TO POPULAR OPINION, THERE IS NO POINT IN TRADING A LIVE ACCOUNT WITHOUT A PLAN " JUST TO SEE HOW IT FEELS" 

Like most areas of life, emotions and feelings have no place when it comes to money. Brokers and marketing companies often encourage persons to invest their money in a Live Account without any or very little practice on a Demo Account. This only benefits the brokers who depend on commission from your money for their profitability, regardless of whether you are making money or not. The end result is usually trading losses in your account.

To avoid giving away your money to them without anything in return, ensure that you have a trading plan that is profitable and has been tested on a Demo Account.

5. CREATE A DETAILED TRADING PLAN WITH GUIDELINES THAT ENSURE YOUR REMAIN DISCIPLINED 



This is extremely important when you have moved to a Live Account where self-control are crucial to your success.

For example, I use and tell people to have a Holding Period Rule when trading. This ensures that you do not become greedy. If the market is only going to give you 150 Pips on a trade, you must not try to hold out for 200 Pips or more just because you want to make up for a previous loss. If you do, the market will pullback to take away your gains, causing even more frustration. 

Take this recent trade on the GBP CAD made. As you will see in the Video, if I had held on to the trade for even a few minutes or hours more than I should have, the market would have taken away the Pips gained in the blink of an eye.

7. BE PATIENT, STICK TO YOUR TRADING PLAN AND NEVER LOSE YOUR COOL

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