My interview stop loss and the Principle of Latest Information - forex trading strategies work

My interview stop loss and the Principle of Latest Information ~ forex trading strategies work

You can find an interview of me in the July 2009 issue of Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities magazine. I mentioned in that interview and also in my book that I believe stop loss should only be applied to momentum strategies but not to mean-reverting strategies. I explained my reasoning better in my book than in the interview, and so I will paraphrase the explanation here.

In algorithmic trading, it is reasonable and intuitive that we should always make use of the latest information in determining whether we should enter into a position, whether that information is price, news, or some analysis. Lets call this the Principle of Latest Information. (If someone can think of a better or sexier name, let me know!)

So lets say we have a stock model based on price momentum, and we entered into a long position based on a recent positive return on price. A few minutes later, the price went down instead of up, causing a big loss on our position. If we now ran this momentum model again, very likely it would tell us to short the stock instead because of the recent negative return on price. If we did that, we would be exiting the previously long position and became flat. This is in effect a stop loss, and it follows strictly from adhering to our model and our Principle of Latest Information.

In contrast, suppose we now have a stock model based on mean-reversion, and we entered into a long position based on a recent drop in price. A few minutes later, the price went down further instead of up, again causing a big loss on our position. If we now ran this mean-reversion model again, it would definitely tell us to buy the stock again because of the ever cheaper price. The model would not ask you to exit this position and take a loss. Hence, adhering to the model and the Principle of Latest Information will not lead to a stop loss for a mean-reverting model.

(Now, if we hold this losing long position long enough, the model will incorporate new historical prices into determining its long or short signals as it retrain itself, as the Principle of Latest Information says it should! At that time, it may indeed recommend that we exit the previously held long position at a loss. But this adjustment takes place at a much longer time scale, and therefore cannot really be considered a stop-loss in its usual sense.)

More generally, I find that at every turn, and not only in the realm of stock trading, applying the Principle of Latest Information always help me to be disciplined and not be afraid to enter into new positions, take loss or endure a drawdown as the case may be.
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Forex And Bullion Trading Some Information From The Experts - great forex trading system

Forex And Bullion Trading Some Information From The Experts ~ great forex trading system

Forex trading is relevant to many, and profitable to those who trade smart. Therefore just how does one get going? In this article we will provide a 101 guide to Currency exchange and bullion trading with tips employed by the pros. This guide can get you off to a powerful start and put you well on the way to potentially giant profits. The charts for the timescale smaller than your regular trading period will help you pin down the best entry and exit points for your positions. If you tend to trade on the day, look at the hourly charts. If you trade on the hour, examine the fifteen-minute charts. The speedier charts will show you the most advantageous moments to open or close your positions. A good tip for forex trading is to work smart, not hard. To achieve success at trading you have to be capable of making the right decisions at the right time. It isnt about how hard youre employed or how many hours you put in. Mostly, you must make your investments with the flow of the money market. If you go against the market, this can cost. Additionally, if it were to pay off, itd be a long term investment that would take quite a while to profit on. Day-trading can often be a nightmare! Many individuals new to Foreign exchange appear to get the impression, or be given the impression that day trading is a fast road to wealth when it is not! Short term volatility is quite random so day-trading can not be different than flipping a coin! As with anything, do your homework and make sure you know what this is about before you sink your hard-earned money into it. Avoid thin markets, particularly if youre a new trader. These markets tread on thin ice continually. You never can say if the bottom will all of a sudden drop out and lead to heavy loss of profit. While some traders enjoy the excitement of the challenge, new traders should stick with widely recognized currencies. This piece of writing has supplied you with some of the finest tricks and tips offered, with respect to Forex trading. Use these pointers as a start line for your forex career. Remember though, this is only your place to begin. Constant studying, reading, and learning, is the secret to making money on foreign exchange. So keep on learning and best of luck!
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