Some riskless profit and why it exists - forex trading systems free

Some riskless profit and why it exists ~ forex trading systems free

Numerous commentators have pointed out the enormous yield spread between agencies debt (Fannie/Freddie) and US Treasuries.

Here are some links kindly provided by a reader: 10 yr Fannie/Treasury, 5 yr Fannie/Treasury, 10 yr Freddie/Treasury, and 5 yr Freddie/Treasury.

Currently their spreads are above 150 bp. Since the US government has nationalized Fannie and Freddie, this 150 bp is a riskless profit. As the blog Accrued Interest has pointed out, one reason this riskless profit exists is hedge fund deleveraging: nobody has the risk appetite to arbitrage this spread at a meaningful scale.

Brad Setser, a blogger at the Council of Foreign Relations, suggests that the Chinese government, who does have a lot of cash to benefit from this high yield, should go ahead and buy up these agencies debt. However, if you read the Chinese blogs and online comments, there is enormous internal pressure for the government to spend some of this money on infrastructure projects, social security, health care, etc., so I doubt that the Chinese government will have stabilizing the US mortgage market at the top of its agenda. As a result, arbitrageurs out there should have no fear that this opportunity will disappear any time soon.

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A platform a shareware site and some courses for quant traders - forex traders secret strategies

A platform a shareware site and some courses for quant traders ~ forex traders secret strategies

I mentioned in various places that Alphacet Discovery is an industrial strength integrated platform for backtesting and implementing quantitative trading strategies. But of course, it has many competitors, one of which is a relatively new company called Deltix. Deltix has the distinction of offering a full Matlab interface, which is convenient if you are already a Matlab programmer. (Full disclosure: I previously have a consulting relationship with Alphacet, but have none with Deltix.)

There is also a new website for sharing trading strategy software called Quantonomics. In the words of its founder Joshua, the goal is to "connect programmers and stock traders". Joshua also told me that he will create a custom application on his site for any of you readers as a gift!

A colleague of mine in Singapore, Dr. Li Haksun, who was previously a quant with UBS and BNP Paribas, is offering a course on quantitative trading strategy in July. It covers more theoretical concepts than my own courses: e.g. hidden markov model, stochastic control, and Kalman filters are included.

And of course, my own workshops on Backtesting and Statistical Arbitrage will be offered again in London next week.
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Discover Some Magic To Beat The Forex The Elliott Wave Theory For Forex Markets - keltner bells forex trading system

Discover Some Magic To Beat The Forex The Elliott Wave Theory For Forex Markets ~ keltner bells forex trading system

by: Joseph Plazo


One of the best known and least understood theories of technical analysis in forex trading is the Elliot Wave Theory. Developed in the 1920s by Ralph Nelson Elliot as a method of predicting trends in the stock market, the Elliot Wave theory applies fractal mathematics to movements in the market to make predictions based on crowd behavior. In its essence, the Elliot Wave theory states that the market – in this case, the forex market – moves in a series of 5 swings upward and 3 swings back down, repeated perpetually. But if it were that simple, everyone would be making a killing by catching the wave and riding it until just before it crashes on the shore. Obviously, there’s a lot more to it.

One of the things that makes riding the Elliot Wave so tricky is timing – of all the major wave theories, it’s the only one that doesn’t put a time limit on the reactions and rebounds of the market. A single In fact, the theories of fractal mathematics makes it clear that there are multiple waves within waves within waves. Interpreting the data and finding the right curves and crests is a tricky process, which gives rise to the contention that you can put 20 experts on the Elliot Wave theory in one room and they will never reach an agreement on which way a stock – or in this case, a currency – is headed.

Elliot Wave Basics

• Every action is followed by a reaction.

It’s a standard rule of physics that applies to the crowd behavior on which the Elliot Wave theory is based. If prices drop, people will buy. When people buy, the demand increases and supply decreases driving prices back up. Nearly every system that uses trend analysis to predict the movements of the currency market is based on determining when those actions will cause reactions that make a trade profitable.

• There are five waves in the direction of the main trend followed by three corrective waves (a "5-3" move).

The Elliot Wave theory is that market activity can be predicted as a series of five waves that move in one direction (the trend) followed by three ‘corrective’ waves that move the market back toward its starting point.

• A 5-3 move completes a cycle.

And here’s where the theory begins to get truly complex. Like the mirror reflecting a mirror that reflects a mirror that reflects a mirror, the each 5-3 wave is not only complete in itself, it is a superset of a smaller series of waves, and a subset of a larger set of 5-3 waves – the next principle.

• This 5-3 move then becomes two subdivisions of the next higher 5-3 wave.

In Elliot Wave notation, the 5 waves that fit the trend are labeled 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 (impulses). The three correcting waves are called a, b and c (corrections). Each of these waves is made up of a 5-3 series of waves, and each of those is made up of a 5-3 series of waves. The 5-3 cycle that you’re studying is an impulse and correction in the next ascending 5-3 series.

• The underlying 5-3 pattern remains constant, though the time span of each may vary.

A 5-3 wave may take decades to complete – or it may be over in minutes. Traders who are successful in using the Elliot Wavy theory to trade in the currency market say that the trick is timing trades to coincide with the beginning and end of impulse 3 to minimize your risk and maximize your profit.

Because the timing of each sequence of waves varies so much, using the Elliot Wave theory is very much a matter of interpretation. Identifying the best time to enter and leave a trade is dependent on being able to see and follow the pattern of larger and smaller waves, and to know when to trade and when to get out based on the patterns you identify.

The key is in interpreting the pattern correctly – in finding the right starting point. Once you learn to see the wave patterns and identify them correctly, say those who are experts, you’ll see how they apply in every facet of forex trading, and will be able to use those patterns to trigger your decisions whether you’re day trading or in it for the long haul.
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Forex And Bullion Trading Some Information From The Experts - great forex trading system

Forex And Bullion Trading Some Information From The Experts ~ great forex trading system

Forex trading is relevant to many, and profitable to those who trade smart. Therefore just how does one get going? In this article we will provide a 101 guide to Currency exchange and bullion trading with tips employed by the pros. This guide can get you off to a powerful start and put you well on the way to potentially giant profits. The charts for the timescale smaller than your regular trading period will help you pin down the best entry and exit points for your positions. If you tend to trade on the day, look at the hourly charts. If you trade on the hour, examine the fifteen-minute charts. The speedier charts will show you the most advantageous moments to open or close your positions. A good tip for forex trading is to work smart, not hard. To achieve success at trading you have to be capable of making the right decisions at the right time. It isnt about how hard youre employed or how many hours you put in. Mostly, you must make your investments with the flow of the money market. If you go against the market, this can cost. Additionally, if it were to pay off, itd be a long term investment that would take quite a while to profit on. Day-trading can often be a nightmare! Many individuals new to Foreign exchange appear to get the impression, or be given the impression that day trading is a fast road to wealth when it is not! Short term volatility is quite random so day-trading can not be different than flipping a coin! As with anything, do your homework and make sure you know what this is about before you sink your hard-earned money into it. Avoid thin markets, particularly if youre a new trader. These markets tread on thin ice continually. You never can say if the bottom will all of a sudden drop out and lead to heavy loss of profit. While some traders enjoy the excitement of the challenge, new traders should stick with widely recognized currencies. This piece of writing has supplied you with some of the finest tricks and tips offered, with respect to Forex trading. Use these pointers as a start line for your forex career. Remember though, this is only your place to begin. Constant studying, reading, and learning, is the secret to making money on foreign exchange. So keep on learning and best of luck!
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