SUMMARY OF 35 RATE OF RETURN - mbfx forex trading system v2.0

SUMMARY OF 35 RATE OF RETURN ~ mbfx forex trading system v2.0

The last 13 Months have proven to be both challenging and rewarding with this new Price Action Swing Trading Methodology. Transitioning from Day Trading to Swing Trading is very difficult especially if you - like myself- have spent most of your trading years glued to the computer screen in search of immediate gains each day, only to be constantly disappointed. Swing Trading solves most of the problems associated with Day Trading and provides a more solid foundation upon which to establish a viable source of Long-Term Wealth.

THE PERFORMANCE

The Trade Setup Service, which was started on July 1, 2014, involves providing detailed trade information on trading opportunities on the Daily and 4 Hour Charts for Subscribers to trade on their personal accounts. Assuming a level of risk of 5% per trade, a Subscriber would now have generated a Rate of Return equivalent to 35%-from 15 Trades. This has come from 9 winning trades and 6 losses.

RATE OF RETURN

JULY 1, 2014 - JULY 23, 2015

At this current rate of growth, this Subscriber would now only need 6 more trades to achieve a remarkable Rate of Return of 100%. 

100% RATE OF RETURN IN 3 MONTHS

         (Assumes an Average Risk & Gain of 105 Pips and 150 Pips, respectively)

By continuing to trade the Currency Markets with this unique Methodology, you too will be able to attain your major Short to Long-Term Monetary Goals. 

THE STRATEGY

FXCM Charts are used to provide the entry signals from the Daily Chart, as this platform uses the New York Close Candle of the Daily Chart - crucial to this Price Action Methodology. Stop Losses range from 90 and 120 Pips, depending on the time frame used, while the targeted Pips Per Trade is between 100 to 200 Pips. Targeting fewer than 100 Pips exposes your trades to the more volatile, lower probability setups while aiming above 200 Pips risks pullbacks that take away your gains.

Trades are usually held for a few days, with the actual number of days depending on the individual trade. This holding period acts as an anchor that controls our greed so that we do not hold out for more than the market is offering. Based on this rule, some of these trades have had to be closed earlier than planned if they had not reached their targets on the last day of the holding period.

THE TRADES 

Following a somewhat shaky start with the initial 100 Pip loss on the AUD USD, the Methodology was able to recover with consistent gains in subsequent months. These included the AUD NZD, the AUD USD and the GBP CAD.

AUD NZD TRADE - 69 PIPS

AUD USD TRADE - 148 PIPS

GBP CAD TRADE - 199 PIPS

The AUD NZD trade was an example of a trade that had to be closed early. The original target of over 100 Pips was expected to be hit within the allotted time, especially since we were breaking out from a Consolidation. However, even though I believed that this was going to go higher, I had to closed the trade in order to comply with my rule. As you can appreciate from that pullback below the Trend Line, this was the correct decision - a difficult one after an initial loss, but a necessary one.

The AUD USD trade was a prime example of the discipline and patience demanded of us in order to be successful Swing Traders. As you can see from the graph, there was a sharp pullback bullish that took the trade right back to the Entry Price just before it U-Turned to hit our target. Had we been constantly monitoring the trade as we used to do as Day Traders, we would have began to panic and second-guess ourselves tempting us to close the trade for a small gain. After all, a small gain is always better than a loss any day of the week. However....

If a trade is going to be successful, it has to be allowed to move according to the natural waves of the market. Ideally, we want our trades to move quickly to our targets - as was the case with the GBP CAD above - but the reality is that the market does not always move on our schedule. In order for winning trades to captured, therefore, we must not interfere with the natural dynamic of the market.

It is for this reason that I have included in the Trade Setup sent to Subscribers, the Guideline of never monitoring a trade while it is in motion.

Configure your trading platform so that you only see that the trade is still open without seeing the actual graph, floating balance or account balance. This is a crucial safeguard required to keep our emotions out of the picture.

As with all strategies, there are periods of losing streaks that have to be faced before we can continue towards our targets. The last three trades have led to losses with the latest one coming from the GBP USD. Although these periods are challenging, they are easier to face and overcome compared to Day Trading. This is because the time in between Swing Trades is sufficient to allow us to objectively analyze these trades and regain our composure and objectivity ahead of the next opportunity.

With Day Trading, we believed we could not afford to sit back because there was always another trade within a few hours that could erase the losing ones and make us "feel better". This left little time to ensure that the next trade was not hastily and emotionally taken in order get quick "revenge" on the market and the brokers.

SUMMARY

If Long-Term Wealth is your goal, then Swing Trading the Currency Market will definitely help you along this journey. We have been made to believe that things need to happen immediately and that waiting patiently for anything is the greatest sin of all. Rome was not built in a day and neither is significant Financial Independence. The Forex Market is a very attractive market to trade but where is stated that the only way to benefit from it is to trade it every day or whenever we want?

By trading only twice per month and thereby minimizing your exposure to this dangerous market, that 35% Return is comparable to most conservative investments instruments. Even if you decided to risk only 2% Per Trade, you would have still earned a significant return of 14%...

RATE OF RETURN AT 2% RISK PER TRADE

In either case, you would be right up there with the best in the industry...

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CAD CHF TREND LINE BREAK AS EXPECTED BUT WHAT NEXT - forex trading system resources

CAD CHF TREND LINE BREAK AS EXPECTED BUT WHAT NEXT ~ forex trading system resources

Having broken the Outer Uptrend Line as expected, the CAD CHF is now at a bit of a crossroads. The Double Tops that were formed were strong enough to lead to the bearish break, but may not be enough to push the pair down much farther. We could see the formation of a Range that eventually leads to the start of a downtrend, but if we see a strong Bull Candle above the Counter Trend Line (CTL) the Uptrend could continue.

Daily Chart below shows the breakout that took place below the Inner and Outer Trend Lines. Supporting this breakout were the Double Tops and the fact that we had rallied by  600 Pips, exceeding the Monthly Range for this pair.

DAILY CHART

Despite this break, the Double Tops seen here were too weak to start a significant downtrend. The first part of this pattern was strong, but the weakness of the candles for the 2nd `Top` rendered the signal too weak.

DAILY CHART

The candles shown here, however, are closer to what we would expect for Double Tops.

DAILY CHART

So what can we expect at this juncture? Well one of two options. 

SCENARIO 1 - CONSOLIDATION ?

Since this breakout may not take place right away, the market could go into a period of Consolidation in the form of a Range. This is typically what you will see when the Monthly Range is hit and/or a Trend Change is going to take place.

DAILY CHART- RANGE SETUP?

We would see a rally to form the 2nd Support to complete the Range followed by a U-turn to breakout bearish. The new trend would be formed as the Swiss Franc regains lost ground against the Loonie.

SCENARIO 2 - RESUMPTION OF UPTREND ?

The Uptrend could actually resume with a simple Bullish Candle and break of the Counter Trend Line (CTL). Even though we are at the Monthly Range of the currency pair, trends can also continue once the setup and signals are strong enough.

DAILY CHART

Until the market shows us its cards, lets wait on the sidelines and then take appropriate action. Get familiar with how to trade these setups and then enjoy the Pips as they continue to roll in using my Methodology.

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US$120.00

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 ___________________________________________

Duane Shepherd 

(M.Sc. Economics, B.Sc. Management and Economics)

Currency Analyst/Trader

Contact: shepherdduane@gmail.com

Twitter: @WorldWide876

Facebook: DRFXTRADING 

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Have oil stocks exhausted their run - forex trading automated system

Have oil stocks exhausted their run ~ forex trading automated system

Floyd Norris, the chief financial correspondent of The New York Times, suggested in his blog today that we are looking at "The Beginning of the End for High Oil Prices". What is the basis of his optimism? He argued that oil stocks have been lagging oil prices lately, and therefore equity investors must believe that high oil prices are causing demand destruction which will eventually reduce oil prices and oil companies earnings.

I beg to differ.

Look at the long-standing spread relation between an oil stock ETF and an oil commodity ETF, e.g. XLE vs USO, which I have been commenting on and tracking since October 2006. At the moment, this spread is within 1.4 standard deviations of its historical value. See my table here (subscription required). In other words, oil prices and oil stock prices are at approximately their long-time historical average. I would hardly call that suggestive of the beginning of the end.
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EURO CAD BULLS HAVE THE EDGE WITH STRONG BULL CROWN - macd forex trading system

EURO CAD BULLS HAVE THE EDGE WITH STRONG BULL CROWN ~ macd forex trading system

A Bull Crown Formation has now appeared at the Inner Downtrend Line following the sharp Bearish breakout from the Range Setup. This appears to indicate the start of an Uptrend in the days ahead, despite the predominantly Bearish direction of this currency pair.

From the chart below, we can see that the Breakout that was taking place from the Range Setup on the Daily Chart has now ended with a rally above the Inner Downtrend Line.

DAILY CHART- OVERALL DOWNTREND

Breakouts from Consolidations such as these can include periods of pullbacks that eventually lead to the continuation of the trend. In fact, above the Inner Downtrend Line, a Range Setup has been formed above the Uptrend/Counter Trend Lines. If these are broken bearish with a strong candle, it could lead to the resumption of the overall breakout.

DAILY CHART- RANGE SETUP

However, there are two factors that give the edge to the Bulls and the likelihood of a new Uptrend in the days ahead. The first is that Breakouts from Range Consolidations of this size are generally expected to last a longer time than appears to be happening here. Although the pullbacks are expected, the time that it has now taken in moving sideways is longer than is normal for Breakouts such as these.

DAILY CHART- EXPECTED BREAKOUT DISTANCE

The second factor has to do with the Bull Crown setup that has appeared above the Inner Downtrend Line. Not only is it unusual to have such a long period of indecision with these Breakouts, but it is even more so whenever a strong setup that signals a move in the opposite direction appears.

DAILY CHART- BULL CROWN

Because of these two factors, a breakout above the Resistance of the Range Setup is the more likely scenario. This would first carry us to the Outer Downtrend Line where the pair could encounter some resistance. From here, a break of this barrier could take place to signal even stronger gains for the EURO. This would require another strong signal given the significance of the barrier and that there is always a possibility of the existing trend continuing as long as we are still below this trend line.

DAILY CHART- PROJECTED MOVES

Aggressive traders may be tempted to get into this trade before a breakout signal is provided. This is often done to get in ahead of the market especially if the breakout candle is too large and does not provide a small enough Stop Loss. However, given the frequency of False Breakouts, it is always better to wait for the Daily Chart to signal the direction in order to trade with greater confidence. Stop Losses may be larger but if they are placed at an area that is strong enough to protect the trade, a trader can hold his/her position with greater certainty that profit targets will be hit.

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The failed factors have reverted - best forex trading system review

The failed factors have reverted ~ best forex trading system review

As I said in my CNBC interview, investors just got to be patient with the factor models. Sure enough, we are seeing reports that the large drawdown suffered by these models has already reverted as of Friday.
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300 PIP AUSSIE BREAKOUT MAY HAVE TO WAIT - forex trading system requirements

300 PIP AUSSIE BREAKOUT MAY HAVE TO WAIT ~ forex trading system requirements

This pair has recently attempted to start a breakout from a Range on the Daily Chart, with a break of a Counter Trend Line (CTL) setup below the Support. This is a common way for Consolidation breakouts to begin following a test of the Range with this CTL barrier. However, the bearish break candle was not strong enough and would need to be followed by another bear candle to convincingly start the downtrend. Nevertheless, with a break of the Uptrend Line already taking place and a False Breakout of a previous Consolidation, it is only a matter of time before the USD begins to regain lost ground against its Aussie counterpart.

We can see the CTL setup that was broken in the graph below. CTLs tend to appear at the Resistance or Support of a broken Consolidation as a way of testing these areas before the breakout begins.

DAILY CHART

Despite being a strong candle on its own, the break below the CTL was not far enough to start the breakout. The distance below the CTL normally has to be greater such as in the example below for the CAD CHF this year.

DAILY CHART- CAD CHF

Whenever the breakout is not strong enough, one of two things can take place. There could either be a False Breakout that takes us back inside of the Range or another, stronger bear candle that continues the breakout short. What could tip the balance in favour of a bearish move, however, are three technical factors;

1. The Break below the Uptrend Line;
2. The Plateauing, Sideways Movement of the Currency Pair;
3. A Previous False Consolidation Breakout;

It is very common for trend changes to follow False Consolidation Breakouts and periods of sideways movements. There was a Pennant setup on the left-hand-side of the chart that attempted to break long to continue the uptrend, but this was short-lived, giving way to the Range setup that we now see. These two Consolidations side by side then created a type of plateau which normally means that the momentum of the trend has been exhausted. If we add a break of a Trend Line into the mix, then a trend change is the inevitable outcome.

DAILY CHART

Once this bearish trend gets going, the target that is expected to be hit in the short-term is the 0,9000 area. This coincides with the Breakout Equivalent of the Range and is the price point at which the breakouts from Consolidations come to an end.

DAILY CHART

So long as the signals and setups on the Daily and 4 Hour Charts are strong, we can capture a large part of this expected 300- Pip decline.

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____________________________________________________

SUBSCRIBE TODAY

____________________________________________________

US$120.00

Free 

 ___________________________________________

Duane Shepherd 

(M.Sc. Economics, B.Sc. Management and Economics)

Currency Analyst/Trader

Contact: shepherdduane@gmail.com

Twitter: @WorldWide876

Facebook: DRFXTRADING 

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Have you traded 10 000 hours yet - forex easy news trader strategy v1.02

Have you traded 10 000 hours yet ~ forex easy news trader strategy v1.02

Author Malcolm Gladwell, in his fascinating bestseller "Outliers: The Story of Success", cites neurological research showing that "10,000 hours of practice is required to achieve the level of mastery associated with being a world-class expert." This seems to apply across many different types of experts, whether they are "writers, ice skaters, concert pianists, chess players ... Even Mozart ... couldnt hit his stride until he had his ten thousand hours in".

Reflecting on my own experience, I have become consistently profitable only after 4 years of actual trading (research alone doesnt count -- real money need to be at risk.) So while the number of hours may not be exactly 10,000, the order of magnitude is about right.

So if your trading has not been profitable, ask yourself this: "Have I traded 10,000 hours yet?"
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Futures markets have no effect on spot prices - forex trading arbitrage system

Futures markets have no effect on spot prices ~ forex trading arbitrage system

NYTimes columnist and Princeton economist Paul Krugman has previously (see my link here) argued that the trading of oil futures should have no effect on spot oil prices, contrary to what many politicians and pundits think. Here is his latest elaboration of that argument.
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