CAD CHF TREND LINE BREAK AS EXPECTED BUT WHAT NEXT - forex trading system resources

CAD CHF TREND LINE BREAK AS EXPECTED BUT WHAT NEXT ~ forex trading system resources

Having broken the Outer Uptrend Line as expected, the CAD CHF is now at a bit of a crossroads. The Double Tops that were formed were strong enough to lead to the bearish break, but may not be enough to push the pair down much farther. We could see the formation of a Range that eventually leads to the start of a downtrend, but if we see a strong Bull Candle above the Counter Trend Line (CTL) the Uptrend could continue.

Daily Chart below shows the breakout that took place below the Inner and Outer Trend Lines. Supporting this breakout were the Double Tops and the fact that we had rallied by  600 Pips, exceeding the Monthly Range for this pair.

DAILY CHART

Despite this break, the Double Tops seen here were too weak to start a significant downtrend. The first part of this pattern was strong, but the weakness of the candles for the 2nd `Top` rendered the signal too weak.

DAILY CHART

The candles shown here, however, are closer to what we would expect for Double Tops.

DAILY CHART

So what can we expect at this juncture? Well one of two options. 

SCENARIO 1 - CONSOLIDATION ?

Since this breakout may not take place right away, the market could go into a period of Consolidation in the form of a Range. This is typically what you will see when the Monthly Range is hit and/or a Trend Change is going to take place.

DAILY CHART- RANGE SETUP?

We would see a rally to form the 2nd Support to complete the Range followed by a U-turn to breakout bearish. The new trend would be formed as the Swiss Franc regains lost ground against the Loonie.

SCENARIO 2 - RESUMPTION OF UPTREND ?

The Uptrend could actually resume with a simple Bullish Candle and break of the Counter Trend Line (CTL). Even though we are at the Monthly Range of the currency pair, trends can also continue once the setup and signals are strong enough.

DAILY CHART

Until the market shows us its cards, lets wait on the sidelines and then take appropriate action. Get familiar with how to trade these setups and then enjoy the Pips as they continue to roll in using my Methodology.

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Twitter: @WorldWide876

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199 PIPS ON GBP CAD TRADE PUSHES RETURN UP TO 22 - best forex news trading system

199 PIPS ON GBP CAD TRADE PUSHES RETURN UP TO 22 ~ best forex news trading system

The Swing Trading Methodology continues to produce results with the most recent gain of 199 Pips on the GBP CAD. This brings the overall return from the strategy to 22% since it was launched in July, from only 8 trades. As it stands, clients are now only 8 trades away from a return of 100%, which is likely to be reached in the first four months of 2015. The Demo Account, which lags the Live Account by just 3 trades, is now up 17% since it was opened in October.

The Range Consolidation on the Daily Chart of this pair was initially broken short a few days ago, indicating the potential start of a sharp bearish breakout. However, given that the pair had already provided 3-Waves of Bearish Signals in breaking the Support boundary, a bullish pullback was always expected.


DAILY CHART




This reversal began a few days later with the appearance of Bullish Signals and a break of the Downtrend Line.


DAILY CHART

At this juncture, there were two possible scenarios that could have unfolded. The first was for the pair to continue its reversal and break back inside the Range, rallying sharply to the Resistance boundary once more.


DAILY CHART

This sharp rally would be typical of what takes place with False Breakouts. Not only would the reversal take the pair quickly to the other end of the Consolidation, they often lead to breakouts at the other end of the setup for even stronger gains for traders. Despite the bullish signals that initially favoured such a move, we also had to consider the bearish scenario as well.

The boundaries of Consolidations are often "tested" for a brief period before resuming the breakout. This "test" often takes the form of a U-Turn or a break of a small Consolidation setup formed at that area. A sharp bearish breakout following such a pullback was also a scenario to be considered.


DAILY CHART 

As it turned out, the bullish scenario eventually took precedence as the pair provided an ABC Reversal Signal to continue the False Breakout Reversal. The pair of Double Bottoms below the Range also provided support for the trade. 


DAILY CHART

FXCM Charts are used to provide signals based on the New York Candle Close of the Daily Chart

Given this strong setup and signal, entry then took place on the 4 Hour Chart. The Stop Loss was placed below the Range and the Entry Order set just above its Resistance in expectation of a pullback. This would allow our Stop Loss to comply with the 120-Pip maximum for entries based on the Daily Chart. 


4 HOUR CHART

This was the Entry Trade Sheet as sent to my Subscribers;

TRADE SUMMARY & SETUP 

PAIR	GBP CAD
TRADE TYPE	FALSE CONSOLIDATION BREAKOUT
ENTRY DATE	TODAY, DECEMBER 8, 2014
TRADE DIRECTION	LONG/BUY
ENTRY TYPE	ENTRY ORDER
ENTRY PRICE (MAXIMUM)	1,7904
STOP LOSS	1,7784
LIMIT ORDER	1,8104
MAXIMUM HOLDING PERIOD	7 DAYS - WEDNESDAY DEC. 17, 2014
DAILY TIME CHECK	21 00 GMT

After pulling back to test the Resistance of the Range our Entry Order was triggered. Following the U-Turn to resume the breakout, the target was hit a few days later.


4 HOUR CHART

DAILY CHART- LIVE ACCOUNT RESULT

This movement to our target was very fast. Given that we had the combination of the Double Bottoms, a False Breakout Setup and the ABC Signal - which individually always lead to sharp movements - the short duration of the trade was not a surprise. 

The main Technical factors involved in this trade were;

• The 3-Wave Rule (Section 4 - Consolidation Trading on the Forex Market);

• Double Bottoms (Section 3 - Currency Trading with the Daily & 4 Hour Charts);

• False Consolidation Breakouts (Section 6 - Consolidation Trading on the Forex Market);

• ABC Signals (Section 6 - Consolidation Trading on the Forex Market);

Placing this trade in a larger context, the Methodology has now produced a 22% Rate of Return since it started in July of this year. Only 8 trades have been made so far with a simplistic assumption that will be no further losses, clients are only a handful of trades away from realizing a 100% return.

RATE OF RETURN AS AT DECEMBER 12, 2014

These projections assume that each of the next trades will provide a 150 Pip value, which is the average of our 100 to 200 Pip target range. An FXCM Demo Account was opened on October 1, 2014 to track these trades and is now up 17% after 5 trades. This account would also only require 8 trades for the 100% target.

RATE OF RETURN - DEMO ACCOUNT

DEMO TRADES MADE

ACCOUNT BALANCE

When these results are compared with the Year-To-Date returns as at September 30, 2014 of the Top 10 Currency Traders as ranked by BarclayHedge...

SEPTEMBER YEAR-TO-DATE RETURNS OF CURRENCY TRADERS 

....the Methodology so far, appears to be able to hold its own.

Naturally, for reasons of privacy, I only share the results of individual trades on my Live Account without showing my actual Trading Account. However, since this Demo Account is only behind by 3 trades and is audited by the trade verification services of MyfxBook, you can be assured of the integrity of the information you see here.

RATE OF RETURN- DEMO ACCOUNT

(http://www.myfxbook.com/members/DRFXTRADING/duane/1079693)

The style of trading that has produced these results is both conservative and high-paying. Trading is only done 1 to 2 times per month, minimizing the exposure of your capital to the volatility of the market. When trading is conducted, however, only the highest paying Swing Trading opportunities that have the largest probability of success are targeted.

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Selasa, 03 Mei 2016

KIWI DOLLAR LIKELY TO FOLLOW SHARP AUSSIE DECLINE - new forex manual trading system

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KIWI DOLLAR LIKELY TO FOLLOW SHARP AUSSIE DECLINE ~ new forex manual trading system

Given the strong positive correlation between the AUD USD and the NZD USD, the NZD USD could resume its bearish trend following the recent decline of the Aussie Dollar by nearly 600 Pips.

The Aussie Dollar has been steadily declining over the last several days after breaking the Support of the very large Pennant setup.


DAILY CHART- AUD USD

In breaking out of this Pennant, the pair broke a smaller Pennant and a Counter Trend Line that tested the Support before starting the breakout.


DAILY CHART-AUD USD

Whenever large Consolidations are being broken, they normally form these smaller setups at Resistance and Support which "test" the strength of these boundaries before breaking out.

For its part, the Kiwi Dollar has also formed a small Pennant at the Support of its large Pennant as well, but has not yet provided us with a breakout signal.


DAILY CHART- NZD USD

DAILY CHART- NZD USD

Although both pairs are highly correlated, without a breakout signal, the Kiwi Dollar is now equally likely to rally back inside of the Pennant as it is to break short. If a breakout short takes place, it would be in sync with the trend on the Aussie Dollar, leading to strong gains for the US Dollar over the next several months. However, a False Breakout Reversal inside could also keep this correlation in tact if it coincides with a temporary pullback in the Aussie Dollar.

The main reason that the Aussie Dollar trade is on the Demo Account is that the breakout started and continued with Weak Candles. These types of signals tend to be associated with slow breakouts that can provide large trading gains. However, they are also notorious for leading to False Consolidation Breakouts....


DAILY CHART - NZD USD

Once a strong signal is provided in either direction, Live Account trading of this pair is likely to be highly profitable. Distinguishing between these types of candles is therefore very important to avoid False Breakouts and unnecessary losses (Section 8 " Consolidation Trading on the Forex Market").

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Duane Shepherd

(M.Sc. Economics, B.Sc. Management and Economics)

Currency Analyst/Trader

Contact: shepherdduane@gmail.com

Twitter: @WorldWide876

Facebook: DRFXTRADING
Website: www.drfxswingtrading.com

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Senin, 02 Mei 2016

LAST GASP AUSSIE RALLY AHEAD OF SHARP DECLINE - automated forex trading system reviews

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LAST GASP AUSSIE RALLY AHEAD OF SHARP DECLINE ~ automated forex trading system reviews

The Aussie-Dollar pair has definitely been testing the patience of traders over the last few weeks, with an extended period of Consolidation above the most recent Uptrend Line. This period of market indecision could either be a setup to resume the current uptrend, or lead to the break of the Uptrend Line to start a downtrend. With the Monthly Range of this pair having been hit (see Trade Manual) and the possible formation of an even larger Pennant taking place, a bearish reversal looks to be the more likely outcome for the rest of 2014.

Both a Pennant and a Small Range have now been formed as the pair slowly drifts sideways below the Uptrend Line. The rally between 1 and 2 and then between 3 and 4 represented the 2 Weekly Ranges that completed the Monthly Range. As with all currency pairs, strong periods of Consolidation are normally formed ahead of either a resumption of the trend or that start of an opposing one.

DAILY CHART - CONSOLIDATION




One reason to support a bearish bias is the fact that we were in a large downtrend that formed with the breakout from a Pennant in 2013. Previous trends can still continue even when the Trend Line has been broken.

DAILY CHART- BROKEN PENNANT

A 2nd reason to expect the depreciation of the Aussie currency is that there have been 3 successive waves of Uptrends and Downtrends that are usually indicative of a large Consolidation setup being formed. The bearish breakout below this Uptrend Line would be the fourth wave and the one that would create the 2nd Resistance point of the Pennant.

DAILY CHART - NEW PENNANT?

Finally, the break of this Uptrend Line is likely to take place based on one of the peculiar aspects of the currency market. Sometimes when there is about to be a trend change, the market will make a last gasp new high or low that changes the angle of the existing Trend Line. When this happens, the market will then break this line to start the new trend.

DAILY CHART- PREVIOUS TREND LINE

The previous Uptrend Line was formed by connecting the S1 and S2 Support points, but when the new high was formed, the 2nd connecting Support point changed to the one below the Pennant.

DAILY CHART - NEW HIGH & TREND LINE

Several other examples of this can be found across all time frames and with all currency pairs.

DAILY CHART - EURO USD

 4 HOUR CHART- USD CAD

15 MINUTE CHART - NZD CHF

These types of Trend Line changes may be thought of as mere coincidences, but the frequency with which they occur makes this unlikely. Traders can use this knowledge to anticipate a trend change especially if the existing trend has had a very long run followed by a period of Consolidation.

The fact that several of the most popular and liquid currency pairs have also been in Consolidation supports the bearish scenario for the Aussie Dollar. Trends have been few and far between in an environment of low volatility and minimal interest rate differentials. Therefore, identifying and knowing how to trade these setups will allow traders to continue to make money.

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Duane Shepherd 

(M.Sc. Economics, B.Sc. Management and Economics)

Currency Analyst/Trader

Contact: shepherdduane@gmail.com

Twitter: @WorldWide876

Facebook: DRFXTRADING 

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Sabtu, 09 April 2016

300 PIP AUSSIE BREAKOUT MAY HAVE TO WAIT - forex trading system requirements

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300 PIP AUSSIE BREAKOUT MAY HAVE TO WAIT ~ forex trading system requirements

This pair has recently attempted to start a breakout from a Range on the Daily Chart, with a break of a Counter Trend Line (CTL) setup below the Support. This is a common way for Consolidation breakouts to begin following a test of the Range with this CTL barrier. However, the bearish break candle was not strong enough and would need to be followed by another bear candle to convincingly start the downtrend. Nevertheless, with a break of the Uptrend Line already taking place and a False Breakout of a previous Consolidation, it is only a matter of time before the USD begins to regain lost ground against its Aussie counterpart.

We can see the CTL setup that was broken in the graph below. CTLs tend to appear at the Resistance or Support of a broken Consolidation as a way of testing these areas before the breakout begins.

DAILY CHART

Despite being a strong candle on its own, the break below the CTL was not far enough to start the breakout. The distance below the CTL normally has to be greater such as in the example below for the CAD CHF this year.

DAILY CHART- CAD CHF

Whenever the breakout is not strong enough, one of two things can take place. There could either be a False Breakout that takes us back inside of the Range or another, stronger bear candle that continues the breakout short. What could tip the balance in favour of a bearish move, however, are three technical factors;

1. The Break below the Uptrend Line;
2. The Plateauing, Sideways Movement of the Currency Pair;
3. A Previous False Consolidation Breakout;

It is very common for trend changes to follow False Consolidation Breakouts and periods of sideways movements. There was a Pennant setup on the left-hand-side of the chart that attempted to break long to continue the uptrend, but this was short-lived, giving way to the Range setup that we now see. These two Consolidations side by side then created a type of plateau which normally means that the momentum of the trend has been exhausted. If we add a break of a Trend Line into the mix, then a trend change is the inevitable outcome.

DAILY CHART

Once this bearish trend gets going, the target that is expected to be hit in the short-term is the 0,9000 area. This coincides with the Breakout Equivalent of the Range and is the price point at which the breakouts from Consolidations come to an end.

DAILY CHART

So long as the signals and setups on the Daily and 4 Hour Charts are strong, we can capture a large part of this expected 300- Pip decline.

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____________________________________________________

SUBSCRIBE TODAY

____________________________________________________

US$120.00

Free 

 ___________________________________________

Duane Shepherd 

(M.Sc. Economics, B.Sc. Management and Economics)

Currency Analyst/Trader

Contact: shepherdduane@gmail.com

Twitter: @WorldWide876

Facebook: DRFXTRADING 

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